Principal Advisor Ünal Çeviköz: Where should Turkey stand as global and regional balances change rapidly?

China's role in establishing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has recently been at the centre of the agenda. China is taking firm steps towards raising its global power quotient. China has achieved a position at the top of the agenda in Iran-Saudi Arabia relations with Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow. Yes, global balances are shifting, and the reactions to the US's identification of Russia and China as adversaries are paving the way to accelerate anti-US developments worldwide.

MULTIPOLARITY IN GLOBAL BALANCES

The development that has brought Russia and China so close to each other is the "multipolar world order", which both countries advocate with great enthusiasm. No one is opposed to this concept! After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the bipolar system created a deceptive perception of unipolarity for a short period of time as the US was left alone in the global power equation. The collapse of this "perception" like an urban legend with the twin towers attack in 2001 brought the world face to face with reality.

Between 1991 and 2001, the US was already exhausted, and it became clear that a unipolar hegemonic structure was unsustainable. The First Gulf War was the essential building block of this development. After 2001, the adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan reinforced the belief that the US had begun to keep a low profile in the global balance of power.

Today, it is widely believed that China is filling this void. However, China's global strategy is more of an economic positioning than one based on military power like the US. China is in rapprochement with Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Still, all three are energy-rich and energy-exporting countries should not be surprising given that China is a country in need of energy imports.

NEW REGIONAL BALANCES

While focusing on China, we overlook Saudi Arabia, which is gaining an increasingly consolidated position in our neighbourhood. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has become a rising regional actor in the Middle East.

The most important background for this development is Saudi Arabia's realization that it needs to pursue a policy that is not at odds with other actors in its neighbourhood. While relations with Qatar have softened, Israel, which launched a new foreign policy breakthrough with the Abraham agreements, has also come under Saudi Arabia's radar. For example, Israeli airline planes can now fly through Saudi Arabian airspace.

Three essential steps taken by Saudi Arabia recently point to a policy shift against the United States.

First, the rapprochement with Iran has begun. Of course, much of the credit for this goes to China. Still, Saudi Arabia seeks to cleanse itself of tensions and potentially escalating confrontations in the region. The addition of Iran to the equation on top of Israel should be seen as a significant indicator of this quest.

When China, which played an important facilitating role in improving relations with Iran, invited Saudi Arabia to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Saudi Arabia did not even think of saying no. However, the Iranian and SCO steps can potentially drive a wedge between Saudi Arabia and the US.

IS SYRIA RETURNING TO THE ARAB LEAGUE?

The second significant development is the change in Saudi Arabia's Syria policy, which is not a development that pleases the United States. Saudi Arabia is preparing to invite Syrian President Assad to the Arab League summit in Riyadh in May. A Syria backed by the Arab League will inevitably have more legitimacy internationally.

And oil prices...

The third development is the decision of OPEC and OPEC+ countries, including Russia, to cut oil production. Such a decision by OPEC, in which Saudi Arabia is the main actor, leads to a rise in oil prices, but this development favours Russia. It is hard to think that the US, which has been trying to squeeze Russia as much as possible due to the Ukraine crisis, is happy with this decision.

No matter how one sees it, Saudi Arabia is mending fences with Israel, deciding to establish diplomatic relations with Iran, putting SCO membership on its agenda, rapprochement with China and solidarity with Russia. So the score here is against US-Saudi Arabia relations!

WHAT SHOULD TURKEY DO?

The developments mentioned above have been advocated as a path that Turkey should follow for a long time. But, yes, global balances are changing, and the US-Russia, and US-China polarization is evolving towards a general US-Asia polarization. Therefore, more and more people are saying that Turkey should strengthen its alliance with Iran and Russia to solve the Syrian problem by getting closer to the Asian pillar of this paradigm. Reading this article, these circles may even lament that we have let Saudi Arabia steal the stage...

On the other hand, it is important to realize that the West also has expectations from Turkey. The West, which is the geography of most of the international institutions and organizations we are a member of, expects Turkey to strengthen its stance regarding these memberships. The most important pillar of this expectation is the Ukraine crisis and the desire for Turkey to join the sanctions imposed on Russia.

No one should try to pull Turkey back and forth like a pendulum. Turkey's place, position and stance required by its strategic geography are clear. Our path to modern civilization has always led us to pursue a foreign policy that respects this stance. This stance has a backbone formed by a strong rule of law based on democracy. This backbone will soon enable us to straighten our backs again.

On the other hand, there is no validity in saying that "the world is changing, the new world is not the world of a hundred years ago, and Turkey must keep pace with this change". Turkey is a country that closed its doors to World War II, despite the different intellectual tendencies in the society.

Adhering to its own policy, Turkey has maintained its foreign policy of balancing the West and the East without compromise both during and after the Cold War. Its acceptance as an attractive actor and partner for both geographies depends on this success.

It is crucial that Turkey does not pursue a pendulum policy which gives the impression that it is achieving this balance by approaching one side or the other, but instead it is more appropriate that Turkey secures its placee as a cornerstone to achieve balance. Therefore, instead of claiming that Turkey has a choice in foreign policy, let us not give up on the fact that the choice is Turkey itself. Otherwise, we will become a prisoner of the current sad drift.