Where is European security heading?

-Ünal Çeviköz-

The Munich Security Conference is an international security conference held in Munich, Germany, every February since 1963. It is attended by leading heads of state and government, defence and foreign ministers, military experts, and security experts.

Historically, some of these conferences have been remembered for essential speeches. For example, at the 2003 conference, German Foreign Minister Joshka Fischer stated that he found the US rationale for military intervention in Iraq "unconvincing".

Russian President Putin delivered the most memorable speech at the 2007 conference. Putin criticized the unipolar world order, advocated multipolarity, and said that NATO was expanding "despite the promises made to Russia" and getting closer to Russia's borders. This was followed by the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

This year's Munich Security Conference was convened in the aftermath of Russia's military action in Ukraine since February 24 last year, which, though still not officially declared, has escalated into large-scale warfare between the two countries. Throughout the conference, Western leaders expressed their support for Ukraine and will continue to do so in a way that intimidates Russia. The speech of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who participated in the conference online, added to the excitement of the Western leaders.

This year, only a few prominent opposition figures from Russia attended the conference. However, during his "address to the nation" in Moscow on February 21, Putin used a tone reminiscent of his 2007 Munich speech. In terms of the totality of his rhetoric rather than its content, the message of Putin's speech was that the West was primarily responsible for the current situation. There is no hint of peace or dialogue in this speech.

Is Europe moving towards a broader conflict?

Let's combine the Munich Security Conference and Putin's speech with US President Biden's simultaneous visits to Warsaw and Kyiv. In that case, things are not going well between the West and the East. Tensions are escalating incrementally.

Russia has taken two crucial decisions in the last two days. First, the suspension of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with the United States was approved by the DUMA, the lower house of the Russian parliament. Tension is escalating gradually. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg says that this decision will mean the collapse of the entire arms control architecture in the world.

Russia's second step concerns Moldova. As you know, Moldova has no territorial integrity. The Transnistria region east of the Dniester River declared its independence from Moldova. According to a 2012 Russian decree, Russia would support Moldova's sovereignty in the event of a conflict over the future of this region called Transnistria. Putin also cancelled that decree.

WHAT WILL THE SPRING BRING?

For some time now, rumours have been circulating in the international arena that the war between Ukraine and Russia will escalate to a new military escalation in the spring of this year. If we read Putin's speech on February 21 within this background, it is possible to conclude that Russia is preparing for such an intensification.

On the other hand, over the last year, there has been constant talk that Russia might expand the war beyond Ukraine to Moldova. As the escalation of tensions unfolds one step after another, it is hard not to worry that the military confrontation between the neighbours in the northern Black Sea region could escalate, and the war could spread in the spring.

From the point of view of its solidarity, the West may believe it is increasingly isolating Russia in the international arena. But this is not the case. For example, Wang Yi, Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, visited Moscow immediately after leaving the Munich Security Conference. In Moscow, Wang Yi met with Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

The two countries' joint declaration of intent to "continue and further develop multilateral partnership relations" could be considered a classic foreign policy narrative. However, it should not go ignored that the two countries' rapprochement has been encouraged by the two years of the United States' constant characterization of Russia and China as antagonists on the world stage.

WHAT IS TURKEY DOING?

The international agenda is, of course, witnessing significant developments in our near geography. However, it should be remembered that these developments involve various risks. Regrettably, while Turkey was preparing for the most important item on its agenda, the 2023 elections, it was shaken by the disaster of the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes on February 6. Therefore, Turkey is preparing for the most critical elections in its history, in addition to the adverse effects of the devastation caused by the disaster, which will not be short-term. Nevertheless, this should not lead Turkey to put the international agenda on the back burner.

The recent visits to Turkey, first by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and then by US Secretary of State Blinken, reminded us of the international calendar. Although these two visits were short condolence visits for the earthquake, foreign policy certainly issues were discussed in the meetings. Foremost among these issues was the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland. Both guests expressed the importance they attach to this issue. They did not hold back from expressing their preference for simultaneous NATO membership of these two countries against Turkey's implicit "Finland is OK, Sweden is the way to go" approach.

Yes, the elections and the earthquake precede all these issues on Turkey's current agenda. However, when we most need international solidarity to overcome the devastation caused by the earthquake, we should also consider not being seen as the only obstacle to international solidarity, which is on the world's agenda.